COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for January 24–30

7 min readJan 23, 2022

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to have the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Key topics

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH22)

The market remains in the bearish trend and the impulse wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 11–18.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

E-Mini S&P500 (ESH22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 3–7.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling the dollar, hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Dollar Index (DXY). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Euro (EURUSD)

EURUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 18–21.

COT indicator increases. Large speculators are buying Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

EURUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 12–18.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

CHFUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 6–8.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying Pound and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

GBPUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 12–17.

COT indicator increased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are selling Yen and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

JPYUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

WTI Crude Oil (CLH22)

The market remains in the uptrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 7–12.

COT net position indicator increases. Large speculators are buying oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLH22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Friday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 17–21.

COT indicator increases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the Canadian dollar and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

CADUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Gold (XAUUSD)

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the market technical picture and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Gold (GCG22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 13–19.

COT indicator increases. At the same time, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Silver (SIH22). Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 14–20.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

AUDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of January 12–17.

NZDUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Russian Rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the bullish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of January 14–18.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

RUBUSD. Technical analysis and COT net position indicator.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, silver and Dollar Index.

In the near future, WTI Crude Oil and gold can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.